Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 9.884044e-05 0.000117 0.000136 0.000157 0.000181 0.000207 0.000235
2024-12-22 7.679955e-05 0.000101 0.000128 0.000160 0.000197 0.000239 0.000288
2024-12-29 6.369383e-05 0.000090 0.000121 0.000159 0.000205 0.000257 0.000321
2025-01-05 5.291483e-05 0.000081 0.000115 0.000159 0.000214 0.000277 0.000356
2025-01-12 4.252471e-05 0.000070 0.000106 0.000153 0.000213 0.000284 0.000374
2025-01-19 3.726202e-05 0.000066 0.000104 0.000156 0.000224 0.000305 0.000410
2025-01-26 2.967895e-05 0.000057 0.000095 0.000149 0.000221 0.000309 0.000423
2025-02-02 2.594322e-05 0.000053 0.000093 0.000151 0.000229 0.000326 0.000454
2025-02-09 2.190745e-05 0.000049 0.000089 0.000150 0.000232 0.000337 0.000476
2025-02-16 2.012658e-05 0.000048 0.000090 0.000155 0.000245 0.000360 0.000513
2025-02-23 1.768481e-05 0.000045 0.000088 0.000156 0.000252 0.000375 0.000541
2025-03-02 1.409446e-05 0.000039 0.000082 0.000151 0.000249 0.000378 0.000553
2025-03-09 1.119934e-05 0.000035 0.000078 0.000148 0.000251 0.000389 0.000577
2025-03-16 9.032682e-06 0.000032 0.000075 0.000148 0.000256 0.000403 0.000606
2025-03-23 7.595266e-06 0.000030 0.000073 0.000149 0.000264 0.000421 0.000640
2025-03-30 5.975489e-06 0.000027 0.000070 0.000148 0.000267 0.000433 0.000666
2025-04-06 4.323336e-06 0.000023 0.000065 0.000143 0.000266 0.000437 0.000681
2025-04-13 3.589975e-06 0.000022 0.000065 0.000145 0.000274 0.000456 0.000716
2025-04-20 2.390258e-06 0.000019 0.000059 0.000139 0.000270 0.000457 0.000727
2025-04-27 1.892049e-06 0.000017 0.000058 0.000140 0.000277 0.000473 0.000759
2025-05-04 1.363665e-06 0.000016 0.000056 0.000139 0.000279 0.000484 0.000783
2025-05-11 1.181176e-06 0.000015 0.000057 0.000144 0.000292 0.000508 0.000826
2025-05-18 9.042064e-07 0.000014 0.000056 0.000145 0.000299 0.000525 0.000859